How Effective Will Tamiflu Be In A Bird Flu Crisis

Ukmedix has been studying reports of a new study undertaken in Switzerland that is forecasting that the H5N1 bird flu virus is likely to develop immunity to anti viral medications when a pandemic starts.Using a sophisticated mathematical formula the scientists at a technology institute in Zurich plotted the most likely proliferation of a hypothetical outbreak and the results showed that the efficacy of the drugs would be bettered if they were used as prophylactics.

The research looked at the information available from the previous studies into influenza pandemics and also at all the data available on the new H5N1 bird flu virus as well as any information on tests using Tamiflu. The formula worked out exactly what would happen if for example if bird flu broke out in a school with say five hundred people. Another model was also studied which had all the 500 people having taken the Tamiflu before the developed symptoms of the flu and the comparisions were made. The data indicated that the H5N1 virus was more likely to show resistance to the Tamiflu if it was used before the symptoms developed and therefore the scientist advised that the drug should not be used before the symptoms of the disease broke out.

Many people continue to think of Tamiflu as a flu vaccine but it is only really designed to be taken after the onset of bird flu and not before. The study author did however say that his research was not 100% conclusive but could only give indications as to likely scenarios and events. The challenge that faces scientists the world over is find a vaccine that can be used before the bird flu virus starts to really spread and which will work like traditional flu jabs.

The WHO on seeing this report said that its conclusions were still underdeveloped and that mathematical models were not as useful as real life scenarios despite the use of computers and lots of data from past events.